Stopping and Spacing in Historical and Contemporary Populations

The PRDH, the Department of Demography of Université de Montréal and the QIXAA are pleased to invite you to a conference by Professor George Alter, from the University of Michigan, Monday, 28 May, from 1 to 3 pm, in Room C-2059, 3150 Jean Brillant.

Abstract
Demographers studying historical populations in Europe and African societies today have been engaged in similar debates about the relative importance of family limitation (stopping) and birth spacing in fertility decline. The persistence of these controversies is partly due to the problem of measuring stopping and spacing. We demonstrate a regression technique (“cure model”) that examines factors affecting stopping and spacing separately. Historical data from rural Germany are compared to recent data from the Karonga HDSS in northern Malawi. The German fertility transition was entirely due to stopping, and the largest increases in stopping were at the lowest parities. Spacing initially became shorter, but longer birth intervals emerged after 1925. Fertility decline in Karonga was due to both stopping and spacing, which are observed at all parities. Our results suggest that recent fertility declines in Africa are following a different path than the transitions observed in historical Europe.